IDEAS TO SHAPE THE FUTURE

How do companies prepare their leaders for a future that defies prediction? Not long ago, hiring a senior executive often came down to a simple question: “does the face fit?” Outward impressions counted for a lot. The archetype was a tall, white, western, middle-class male. He was expected to demonstrate high levels of mental and physical energy, decisiveness, analytical and strategic skills, and be familiar with a variety of international business cultures. His goal: to boost shareholder value (and probably his bonus too.)

However, over just the past five years, new dynamics have reshaped the business world, and with it our understanding of corporate leadership. The economic center of gravity shifted from the traditional international manufacturer to the omniscient tech colossus. Globalization, seemingly stagnating, has simply continued online. A combative China (not to mention Russia) coupled with a popular backlash against job losses in some Western economies has darkened the mood for ‘Davos Man.’ And Covid lockdowns have fuelled anxiety and cynicism about government overreach, and transformed work norms.

Meanwhile, a new, more idealistic, digitally native generation has moved into management. Younger leaders now want their companies to fight climate change and further social goals, tapping into more diverse talent pools. Thus, in a very short space of time, the old multinational company leader has started to look outdated.

Indeed, the very purpose of a company has changed. A forthcoming Headspring survey of corporate leaders in Europe and the Middle East found that only 13% now consider shareholder value as a long-term priority, less than half the number who prioritized ‘social responsibility’ or ‘diversity and inclusion.’ All stakeholders now matter. Decision-making, the most important leadership quality according to the survey respondents, is now less about leading from the front, and increasingly about delegating and dispersing authority while trying to maintain efficiency.

Many – though certainly not all – leaders have adapted well to these changes. But more profound upheaval is coming, and fast. One in four respondents in Headspring’s survey, for example, say that they look only two to five years ahead when preparing new leaders for senior roles. Predicting what companies might need from leaders in, say, 10 years, is unknown, and even frightening. If, for instance, an algorithm produces consistently better decisions than a CEO, where does the proverbial ‘buck’ stop – with the leader or the algorithm’s programmer, or no-one? When no person can explain how the algorithm reached its decision, how would we know if it is the ‘correct’ decision? There is no guarantee that technological progress will make life easier for employees. Will it mean ‘fewer hours’ or ‘survival of the fewest?’ Will the next generation of leaders herald a golden age of inclusive debate or end up enforcing a simplistic consensus, resistant to alternative viewpoints?

Tomorrow’s leaders will have to determine which path is taken. Are we heading towards an AI-driven dystopia of relentless measuring and tracking to extract every drop of value from employees, before discarding them? Or preparing the ground for a more ‘humane leadership,’ a sort of modern version of the old ‘paternalist’ company, providing a safe haven for staff to learn, experiment and thrive as fully-rounded individuals? What was once futuristic speculation may come to define the very essence of great leadership sooner than we imagined.

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