{"id":1311133,"date":"2024-07-17T17:13:45","date_gmt":"2024-07-17T15:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/?post_type=articles&p=1311133"},"modified":"2024-07-18T09:29:44","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T07:29:44","slug":"expect-the-unexpected-in-french-politics","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/articles\/expect-the-unexpected-in-french-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Expect the Unexpected in French Politics"},"featured_media":1311134,"template":"","meta":{"_has_post_settings":[]},"schools":[],"areas":[449],"subjects":[419],"class_list":["post-1311133","articles","type-articles","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","areas-politics","subjects-global-affairs"],"custom-fields":{"wpcf-article-leadin":["The Rassemblement National's surprising success and subsequent failure in the French snap elections reflect voters' ongoing mistrust, writes Waya Quiviger."],"wpcf-article-body":["Two years ago, I wrote about the French presidential elections and the challenges that Macron would face<\/a> in his second term. Some things I managed to get right. For example, predicting that Macron\u2019s party would win a (relative) majority in the June 2022 legislative elections and that Macron would have to work hard to unite an increasingly divided nation and reengage a significant proportion of disaffected voters. He was largely deemed then \u2013 and now even more so today \u2013 to be out of touch with the grievances of the average French person regarding a falling purchasing power (le pouvoir d\u2019achat), <\/em>inflation, insecurity in the streets, and immigration. These were voters\u2019 priority issues in 2022 and they remain pretty much unchanged today.\r\n\r\nWhere I was wrong two years ago, however, was in thinking that Macron\u2019s reelection would instate a sense of prolonged order after his first five-year mandate. In fact, French politics have gotten, if anything, even more divisive and volatile. Macron hoped to usher in an era of stability but has instead faced increasing dissatisfaction that resulted in a shock victory for the Rassemblement National (RN), Marine Le Pen\u2019s far right party, in the European elections a little over five weeks ago. With 31.37% of the vote, the RN trounced Macron\u2019s Renaissance party, which obtained a paltry 14.6%. This prompted Macron to call for surprise snap legislative elections of the Assembl\u00e9e Nationale. The first round on June 30 yielded even higher returns for the RN winning an unprecedented 33% of the vote, and with the le Nouveau Front Populaire (or NFP, the alliance of five left-leaning parties) reaching 26% and Macron\u2019s Ensemble Alliance trailing with a distant 20%.\r\n\r\nMacron had bet that these snap elections would somehow shake up the French electorate and bring it to its senses. Instead, voters doubled down, choosing the RN over its rivals and opting for the possibility of putting RN president Jordan Bardella into H\u00f4tel Matignon (the Prime Minister\u2019s residence). After the first round of elections in June, it seemed that Macron\u2019s gamble was backfiring.\r\n\r\nThat said, no one \u2013 none of the pundits or experts who were closely following the elections (including me) \u2013 anticipated what was to happen between the first and the second round of the elections. Approximately 200 candidates who had come in third place in what many coined \u201ctriangular races\u201d for parliamentary seats ended up desisting and dropping out, urging voters to opt for runner ups who were facing RN candidates in the second round. This tactic was adopted by many NFP and Ensemble candidates in what was hailed as the raising of a Front R\u00e9publicain<\/em> or Republican Front against the far right. The same strategy was successfully implemented in three prior presidential run-offs against Le Pen (in 2002 with Chirac, and in 2017 and 2022 with Macron).\r\n\r\nTo everyone\u2019s surprise, the Front R\u00e9publicain<\/em> worked again this time. Not only did the RN not obtain an absolute majority \u2013 or even a relative majority \u2013 but they came in a disappointing third, trailing the Nouveau Front Populaire as well as the previously written-off Ensemble alliance, Macron\u2019s center-right coalition that had been largely expected to collapse. In other words, Jordan Bardella won\u2019t be moving to the H\u00f4tel Matignon any time soon.\r\n
Macron, once the golden boy of French politics, will now forever be remembered as a political star that burned bright and then rapidly faded.<\/blockquote>\r\nEvery possible scenario was discussed and analyzed by experts and pundits in the days preceding the second round, but no one predicted these results. So, what happened between June 30 and July 7? And what conclusions can be drawn from these unlikely outcomes for the RN, the NFP, Macron, and for French politics in general?\r\n\r\nThe French electorate is still not ready to let the RN govern France. <\/strong>The glass ceiling that previously prevented Le Pen from being elected remains unbroken. As much as Le Pen has \u201cde-demonized\u201d her party and given it a face-lift with the help of her charismatic, photogenic, and media-savvy young prot\u00e9g\u00e9 Bardella, voters still distrust the RN\u2019s racist, xenophobic, antisemitic, anti-European roots. A few notable instances in the days before round two accentuated this fear. Several RN candidates made antisemitic and xenophobic remarks that were widely reported in the press. Others gave weak interviews on regional radio stations and paled against local competitors. The RN\u2019s economic program was also scrutinized more closely and, in an effort to attract more centrist voters, the RN seemed to backpedal on the pledge to revoke Macron\u2019s recent pension reform and bring down the retirement age to 60 years. This made the RN seem inconsistent and fickle. In addition, there were also some dismaying comments made about excluding French people with dual citizenship from sensitive government positions.\r\n\r\nThese latest RN election results are the inverse of those in 2022. Two years ago, the party lost the presidential elections and then rallied in the legislative elections. Now, in 2024, they were the leading party in the European elections only to disappoint at the legislative ballot boxes.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, while the RN did not get their anticipated 289-seat majority (they \u201conly\u201d obtained 143 seats), they still snatched 54 additional seats \u2013 that\u2019s up from 89 in 2022 and just eight seats in 2017. It is clear that the RN remains a force to be reckoned with and, as Le Pen recently stated, their victory has only been postponed.\r\n\r\nThe NFP managed to defy all odds and win the 2024 legislative elections with 180 seats<\/strong>. The question is, will its unity hold? The NFP consists of five left-leaning parties that have very little in common other than their political orientation. While the coalition did not garner an absolute majority, it still elected more deputies than the other two blocs at the Assembl\u00e9e. Normally, this relative victory would enable them to propose a Prime Minister to head the French government. But it is extremely unlikely they\u2019ll be able to agree on a candidate. Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon, the fiery and abrasive leader of La France Insoumise, the largest party in the Nouveau Front Populaire coalition, is considered by more moderate NFP members as too divisive and contentious. For example, some find his controversial views on Hamas since the 10\/7 attacks almost extremist, and the more centrist NFP members are particularly weary of M\u00e9lenchon\u2019s politics.\r\n\r\nMacron is a much diminished and weakened presidential figure<\/strong>. His political gamble to dissolve the National Assembly and obtain what he called \u201cclarification\u201d from the French electorate failed spectacularly. As it stands now, the Assembl\u00e9e Nationale is even less governable than before the parliamentary elections. As none of the three political blocs won a majority of seats, they have no choice but to negotiate and form alliances that could break the deadlock. This situation is common in many European countries but quite novel for France where there is no culture of power sharing or compromise. Deals with political opponents are often considered betrayal.\r\n\r\nIt remains to be seen how Macron will navigate this very uncertain political landscape. What is undeniable is that his party lost 82 seats after these elections (from 245 to 163). Yes, it could have been worse, the Ensemble party could have collapsed altogether as many feared it would. But the loss of influence is substantial and entirely self-inflicted. Macron, once the golden boy of French politics, will now forever be remembered as a political star that burned bright and then rapidly faded. His reputation and image are irreparably tarnished.\r\n\r\nFrench politics remain unpredictable.<\/strong> No one projected a Nouveau Front Populaire win in the second round of the legislative elections. In the 2022 presidential elections, the French socialist party had been pretty much written off with 4.79% of the vote. Two years later, it is now back in the game with 13.83% in the European elections and 64 newly elected deputies at the Assembl\u00e9e Nationale on July 7. Macron\u2019s Ensemble coalition survived imminent collapse. As of today, it is anyone\u2019s guess who will be appointed as Prime Minister to head the new French government. In this sea of surprises and uncertainty, all eyes are on the 2027 elections. Expect the unexpected. Anything could happen.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n\u00a9 IE Insights."],"wpcf-audio-article":["https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Expect-the-Unexpected-in-French-Politics.mp3"],"wpcf-article-extract":["The Rassemblement National's surprising success and subsequent failure in the French snap elections reflect voters' ongoing mistrust, writes Waya Quiviger."],"wpcf-article-extract-enable":["1"]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articles\/1311133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articles"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/articles"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1311134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1311133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"schools","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/schools?post=1311133"},{"taxonomy":"areas","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/areas?post=1311133"},{"taxonomy":"subjects","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ie.edu\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/subjects?post=1311133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}