Marcos Troyjo on reemerging markets and the coming of reglobalization
On December 4th, the IE School of International Relations welcomed Marcos Troyjo, co-founder and co-director of BRICLab at Columbia University, who discussed with MIR students the coming of Reglobalization and its impact on reemerging markets.
According to Mr. Troyjo, if we were sent 25 years back in time and had to identify four main trends that defined International Relations, he would highlight the following:
- The idea that a combination of free markets and representative democracy represents a superior model in History, a sort of natural law to bring about prosperity.
- The dramatic shift of the world economic center from the West to the East illustrated by the influential role of Japan and the rise of the so-called Asian Tigers.
- The notion that innovation is about the capacity of big corporations to reinvent themselves.
- A deep conviction that political, economic and legal integration is the way forward for regional integration and ultimately for establishing a global government.
How would one define a period characterized by such megatrends?The concept of deep globalization neatly defines this time, as Mr. Troyjo explained. However, today it would be a mistake to think that we are still living in the same period. As a matter of fact, we have been living in an era of deglobalization characterized by:
- The rise of state capitalism as an alternative model for development; the Lehman Brothers’ collapse and the financial crisis that followed and the increasing dysfunction of many democracies. These developments have all called into question the Western predominance of the previous period, leaving a big void instead.
- The re-emergence of Asia, illustrated this time by the role of China as an economic powerhouse.
- A new concept of innovation, which has moved its core from the old task of reinventing corporations to the new focus on starting up companies.
- A prolonged slowdown of economic and regional integration.
So, what can we expect in the next 25 years? Mr.Troyjo foresees a period of reglobalization, or shallow globalization, in which trade and global collaboration networks (or global value chains) will be crucial if countries and companies want to compete globally. In addition, the decisions that China adopts today will have a much bigger impact on world stability and economic performance. This China 2.0 will largely influence how other big powers and emerging markets behave and respond to the challenges of reglobalization in the near future. Last but not least, the next 25 years will witness the rise of a new age of talent that will revolutionize how countries, companies, and individuals compete and position themselves on a global scale.