A Robust Chance Constrained Approach to Surgery Scheduling

Preprint. Uncertain operation durations can turn apparently efficient surgery schedules into long delays and overtime. This study separates uncertainty estimation from schedule optimization and makes the reliability level of each surgery a scheduling decision. A buffer engine supplies duration estimates for different reliability levels, while the model jointly chooses assignments, order and start times. A rolling-origin case study using scheduling instances from HLA Moncloa Hospital in Madrid reports fewer long delays and less overtime than a deterministic mean-duration baseline. The results concern operational scheduling rather than individual clinical decisions.

Citation

Caserta, Marco, Antonio García Romero, and Miguel Vaquero. “A Robust Chance Constrained Approach to Surgery Scheduling.” arXiv, 2026, arXiv:2608.03931. Preprint.

Authors from IE Research Datalab