THE BRIEF #019 EUROPE AND THE FRAGMENTING TECH ORDER

IN BRIEF

Davos 2026, the 56th edition of the World Economic Forum, saw record attendance under the official theme “The Spirit of Dialogue.” Yet one of the clearest takeaways was how profoundly geopolitics is reshaping the global order in ways that are far from that spirit of dialogue.

In his keynote speech, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reminded audiences that “we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” In this rupture, Carney argued, power dynamics dominate: tariffs become leverage and supply chains become vulnerabilities. 

Nations are increasingly compelled to rethink their national strategies across multiple fronts, including how they approach disruptive, border-transcending technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging fields like quantum computing, which directly affect economic resilience and national defense. At the same time, nations are raising urgent questions about how to assert digital sovereignty more effectively and reduce dependence on foreign digital and technological infrastructure.

THE GIST

As Carney noted, many countries are increasingly recognizing the need to develop greater strategic autonomy across critical sectors. In this context, digital sovereignty is increasingly framed as a national security issue. Nations are investing in domestic AI infrastructure, favoring more protectionist policies, and moving away from shared global frameworks. Some countries are already taking early but meaningful measures to assert their digital sovereignty. For example, France recently banned government officials from using U.S.-based video platforms such as Zoom and Teams in favor of the French-developed Visio. Similarly, in 2025, two of Denmark’s largest municipalities chose to phase out American cloud services, signaling a deliberate effort to reduce dependence on U.S. Big Tech. The Danish Ministry of Digitalization also decided to transition its work from Microsoft 365 and Office to LibreOffice, an open-source office productivity suite. While these measures are primarily national in scope, they reflect a broader strategic logic that increasingly extends beyond individual countries.

Carney also emphasized the need for middle powers to collaborate in countering the rise of hard power and great power rivalry, with the goal of fostering a more cooperative and resilient global order. Acting alone, middle powers will remain vulnerable to geopolitical volatility. By working together, however, they can build new models of collaboration or pursue trade agreements among themselves for critical materials used in emerging technologies. These efforts would help reduce vulnerabilities to supply chains dominated by great powers and lessen dependence on scientific and technological innovation that primarily originates from them.  

THE TAKEAWAY

Europe’s challenge is both strategic and definitional: Will European leaders choose to pursue AI and other technology policies independently? Will the EU align more closely with middle powers to pursue a third path that balances hard power dynamics? Or will it ultimately accommodate the existing dominant nations?

As Mark Carney argued in the context of Canada, the task is to be both “principled and pragmatic.” One potential path for Europe is to heed Carney’s advice while also taking a more proactive stance. Small but symbolic steps, such as those taken by France and Denmark, illustrate a broader effort by countries to reduce reliance on external preeminent states for digital services and instead invest in domestically developed solutions. Larger initiatives, such as the EU’s trade agreements with India and Mercosur, finalized after years of negotiation, further reinforce this objective by reflecting a strategic effort to diversify partnerships beyond a narrow group of influential powers.

The EU pioneered the modern global model of data protection law, which many countries later adopted or adapted. It does not need to wait for other powerful nations to set the next global benchmark. Instead, the EU can take a more assertive role by pursuing deeper cooperation with middle powers on issues of mutual concern that directly affect citizens.

DELVE DEEPER

• Read the full transcript of Mark Carney’s 2026 Davos speech.
• Follow Harvard Belfer Center’s Middle Powers Project from November 2025 and learn how the middle powers were selected.
• Read about France’s recent decision to ban government officials from using U.S.-based video platforms such as Zoom and Teams in favor of the French-developed Visio—a concrete example of efforts to assert digital sovereignty.