THE BRIEF #020 Project Vault and the Geopolitics of Critical Mineral

IN BRIEF

The United States’ $12 billion “Project Vault” initiative, aimed at building a strategic reserve of critical minerals, marks a shift toward state-backed stockpiling of key resources, reflecting the growing securitization of global supply chains amid U.S.–China competition. As resource access becomes a pillar of technological power, the European Union, still heavily reliant on Chinese processing and lacking a comparable reserve mechanism, faces pressure to clarify its strategic alignment and approach to autonomy.  

THE GIST

According to the International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, China is the leading refiner for 19 out of 20 key strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70 percent, underscoring its dominant position in mineral processing. This clout has not remained purely economic. Over the past decade, Beijing has demonstrated its willingness to leverage trade and export measures in response to geopolitical tensions, reinforcing the perception that critical minerals can function as instruments of strategic influence. 

On the other hand, Washington’s response, the launching of “Project Vault”, represents more than a stockpiling initiative. It reflects an effort to reduce exposure to Chinese market control and strengthen domestic capacity. At the same time, it signals a recognition that the U.S. cannot secure critical supply chains alone and must work more closely with trusted partners, even in a highly competitive geopolitical environment. 

This strategic competition is particularly evident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country that occupies a pivotal position in global mineral supply chains. Over the past decade, China has consolidated a significant presence in Congolese mining and infrastructure, securing long-term access to key resources. In response, the U.S. has intensified diplomatic and commercial engagement in the country, especially through backing the Lobito Corridor rail and port project —a strategic infrastructure initiative to facilitate alternative export routes— as part of an effort to counterbalance Chinese influence and shape future supply arrangements. 

As major powers increasingly treat critical minerals as matters of national security, global supply chains are becoming less about open markets and more about strategic control. For Western economies, including the EU, Canada, and the United Kingdom, the question is no longer whether supply chains are geopolitical, but how to position themselves within an emerging architecture that is consolidating around competing blocs. Project Vault, in this sense, accelerates the pressure to define strategic alignment before new mineral networks solidify. 

THE TAKEAWAY

Project Vault illustrates a broader transformation in how advanced economies approach resource governance. For the EU, this shift sharpens an existing dilemma. The bloc’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) was adopted to reduce excessive dependencies and strengthen domestic capacity. It sets benchmarks for diversification, recycling, and strategic projects within the EU, with an ultimate intention to ensure that no single third country dominates supply. However, it does not currently include a stockpiling mechanism and continues to operate within a framework that assumes relatively open global markets. If the U.S. continues to build an alliance-based system for securing minerals, Europe may need to consider additional tools of its own, including strategic reserves, to ensure it can protect its interests and negotiate from a stronger position. 

Delaying that choice may carry risks. As new supply networks consolidate and long-term agreements are signed, access and influence could increasingly depend on early positioning. In this context, initiatives such as the EU’s Global Gateway strategy and its efforts to deepen partnerships in mineral-rich regions, including Latin America, could play a strategic role in securing diversified and politically stable supply chains. Project Vault, therefore, does not simply alter U.S. policy, it also accelerates the timeline for Europe to reinforce its own resource security architecture and safeguard the foundations of its technological and green transitions. 

DELVE DEEPER  

• Securing Europe’s Digital Future: Building Technological Sovereignty from Within, Center for the Governance of Change, IE University.
• Project Vault: A Minerals Security Backstop, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2026,
• Trump’s Critical Minerals Commitment Problem, Chatham House, 2026.