Can the European Union lead a trade coalition of the willing?

This GPC policy brief analyses how the European Union (EU) and like-minded middle powers can explore the formation of a "coalition of the willing" to protect and modernise global rules. The initiative arises in response to growing international friction caused by the weaponisation of trade and an increasing disdain for multilateral rules. Amid rising transatlantic tensions, the EU has accelerated efforts to enhance its strategic autonomy and de-risk its economic dependencies by concluding new trade agreements and pursuing a closer rapprochement with the member countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

The core problem addressed in this brief revolves around the challenges of constructing a regulated, transparent, and predictable framework capable of advancing new global rules in areas such as subsidies, rules of origin, carbon pricing, and digital trade. The primary obstacle is whether the European Union can successfully reconcile its evolving, inward-looking industrial strategy and competitiveness goals with non-discriminatory trade frameworks, thereby avoiding new forms of exclusion that could undermine its credibility and capacity to lead such a global coalition.