GPC research reveals how politicizing climate policy fueled eurosceptic vote
As the EU doubles down on its commitment to climate action, a new academic paper from the Global Policy Center (GPC) warns that climate policy scepticism is becoming a significant force in shaping Eurosceptic voting patterns in the European Union. Co-authored by Dr. Ilke Toygür, Director of the Global Policy Center at IE University and Dr. Aleksandra Sojka, Associate Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and Research Fellow at the Instituto Carlos III–Juan March, the paper offers a comprehensive analysis of how voter perceptions of the EU’s green agenda have evolved between 2019 and the 2024 European Parliament elections.
Published in Journal of European Public Policy, the article titled “Does climate policy backlash fuel Eurosceptic vote? Exploring the link in the European Parliament elections”, the study explores the growing political salience of climate policy scepticism in a context marked by economic hardship, rising inflation, and widespread public concern over the cost of living. The authors argue that while support for climate action remains strong in principle, European citizens have become increasingly conscious of the economic trade-offs associated with climate policies. These trade-offs, when framed as sacrifices demanded by EU institutions, have fueled discontent and strengthened support for Eurosceptic parties.
The paper finds that the share of Eurosceptic voters among climate policy sceptics doubled between the two elections. Regression models confirm that climate policy scepticism became a strong and statistically significant predictor of the Eurosceptic vote in 2024, even when controlling for factors such as ideology, income, and education. In contrast, voters who supported climate action were more likely to vote for pro-European parties.
This trend highlights the growing salience of climate policy as a mobilising issue in European politics — not only for its environmental impact, but for its perceived economic and social trade-offs. The authors argue that as EU climate legislation becomes more visible and wide-reaching, it is increasingly politicised, especially by challenger parties seeking to capitalise on economic discontent.
The authors conclude with a call for a nuanced political approach. Policymakers must balance ambition with equity, designing climate policies that account for distributional effects and offer tangible support to both industries and citizens. The way policies are communicated and implemented will also be crucial in securing long-term public backing for the green transition.
As the authors write, “The shift from environmental prioritisation to economic caution in European public opinion underscores the importance of addressing the socioeconomic impacts of climate policies. Policymakers should consider strategies to balance economic and environmental objectives while mitigating the adverse effects that could alienate key constituencies. The framing of the policies and their communication will also be very important. The EU institutions should design targeted public opinion campaigns to increase public opinion support”.